OSCARS 2018: Curzon Predicts the Winners
Every year at Curzon HQ, we hold an Oscars sweepstake. It costs £2 to enter, you pick what you think will win in each award category (not what you would like to win), writing it all down on a sheet of paper that goes inside a big jiffy bag and then is safely locked away in someones desk drawer until the Monday after the Sunday night before.
We all work in film, so we should know, right?
This year, we decided to collate all the votes to see which films Curzon staff think will reign victorious. The spreadsheets have been compiled, the calculations made and so, without further ado, we present to you the Curzon Oscar predictions, 2018. Let us know what you think will win in the comments below.
UPDATE: The winners are in! Let's see how we did...
There are a few films in the running that we’d like to see with a Best Picture accolade to their name, the most popular title among them being Call Me By Your Name, which is still playing at Curzon Soho after an astonishing 18 week run.
Despite our hopes and desires, with 64% of the vote we're fairly certain Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will win on Oscar night. Although the clear favourite, the film actually divided the Curzon office. Some took it too seriously, others not seriously enough but, whatever side of the fence you found yourself on, what remains is a film that has sparked a lot of debate and has clearly entertained audiences far and wide.
Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh
Winner: The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and J. Miles Dale
Daniel Day-Lewis’ threat of retirement wasn't enough to swing the vote, but that's no reflection on his utterly spellbinding performance in Phantom Thread. Alas, Gary Oldman, the kid from East London who this year took on one of the giants of British history, has won it for his performance in Darkest Hour with 73% of our vote.
Our runner up, with 18% of the vote, is Daniel Kaluuya. Get Out was one of the surprise hits of 2017, with Kaluuya’s central performance the essential grounding point for all the madness that surrounds him. There's and outside chance Kaluuya could take it.
Prediction: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Winner: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Here in Curzon HQ, a shadow of doubt hangs over a Frances McDormand win. Considered by many to be a sure thing, a 9% fringe group predict the award will go instead to Sally Hawkins, the mute, fish-romancing star of The Shape of Water. Either performances would make for a worthy win in our eyes, but Frances does seems the most likely victor.
0% of voters think Meryl Streep will win, which is testament to the strength of McDormand's performance.
Prediction: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sam Rockwell’s divisive portrayal of the complex / irredeemable police officer Dixon in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is the clear favourite with 91% of the vote, but one Curzon character has pitched a Woody Harrelson curveball to keep us on our toes. Either way, the Billboards have it.
Christopher Plummer’s Kevin Spacey eraser makes perhaps the most potent statement of any performance this year. In the wake of a series of sexual assault allegations levelled at Spacey, Plummer spent just nine days reshooting all of the disgraced actor's scenes for All the Money in the World, so that director Ridley Scott could replace him in the film. The legacy of Plummer's performance seems secure with or without an Oscar.
Prediction: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Winner: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The deliciously vicious Allison Janney doesn’t quite get a perfect 6, but for her impeccably evil parenting in I, Tonya she earned herself 82% of our vote. Lesley Manville, the Nancy to Janney's Tonya, is her only rival. Playing a similarly venomous coach (of sorts) in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread, don’t pick a fight with Lesley for she’ll go right through you and you’ll end up on the floor.
R&B queen Mary J. Blige may not have received any votes for her role in Dee Rees’ Mudbound, but hers is a remarkable performance for an unseasoned actor that deserves much more recognition.
Prediction: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
For giving the world fishman themed sex toys, Guillermo del Toro is set to take the top prize this year according to our voters. Although, there are a few out there who are still holding out for a Greta Gerwig triumph.
Only the fifth woman to even be nominated for a Best Director Oscar, a win for Gerwig would be a momentous occasion, one for the history books. It’s her solo debut, though, so what are the odds? Well, they’re about 1:9 if you’re asking Curzon staff.
Prediction: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Winner: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
With a staggering 100% of the vote, we’re pretty sure Pixar’s Day of the Dead homage, Coco, is the clear winner. Pixar are like the Meryl Streep of producers. Except for this year, of course. Sorry Meryl.
Prediction: Coco, Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
Winner: Coco, Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson
As we come to the first of what we like to call the ‘wild guess’ categories, it seems that Dear Basketball is the favourite among those not really in the know, with 64% of our vote, followed by Negative Space and Lou, respectively.
Prediction: Dear Basketball, Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
Winner: Dear Basketball, Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
The sublime Call Me By Your Name, adapted by James Ivory from André Aciman’s novel has wooed its way to 82% of the vote. There’s a little bit of love for walkin’ talkin’ Sorkin’s Molly's Game, starring a winning Jessica Chastain, and a shout out to Mudbound, but after a BAFTA and a number of other prestigious wins it seems like Elio and Oliver’s summer romance has captured hearts and awards alike.
Prediction: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Winner: James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
In the most divisive award in terms of votes, Jordan Peele’s Get Out emerges victorious. A terrific, genre-twisting, liberal-skewering comedy-horror mash up, a win for this film would be one of the most powerful statements in recent memory.
Prediction: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Winner: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Someone on our staff clearly didn’t make it to the cinema to see Blade Runner 2049, as there was one vote against it. Say what you will about the story, the acting, the runtime (just kidding), it’s hard to argue with how that film looked on the big screen. Like we say, someone did argue with it, but they’re wrong.
Prediction: Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Winner: Roger A. Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Best Documentary Feature
Okay, who didn’t vote for Agnès Varda's Faces, Places? Show yourself!
Winner: Icarus, Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
Prediction: Faces, Places, Agnès Varda, JR and Rosalie Varda
Best Documentary – Short Subject
While the overall winner in this category is Heroin(e) with 37% of the vote, we believe there is an equal chance that the winner of this award will have something to do with traffic congestion, with Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 and Traffic Stop sharing 37% of the vote.
Prediction: Heroin(e), Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon
Winner: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Frank Stiefel
Best Live Action Short Film
We're all over the place on this one. Really, we have no idea what is most likely to win, but let's go with... DeKalb Elementary. If you're lucky enough to be close by one of our cinemas, you can watch all of the nominated films in this category on the big screen.
Prediction: DeKalb Elementary, Reed Van Dyk
Winner: The Silent Child, Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton
Best Foreign Language Film
Dutifully, our staff have divided themselves between the two Curzon Artificial Eye nominees, A Fantastic Woman and The Square. Good to know the memos are getting through. The former takes a much needed step forward in the cinematic representation of the LGBTQ community, while the latter already has a Palme d’Or to its name, so we think righteousness shall prevail and A Fantastic Woman will take the golden guy.
We're not ones to brag, but Curzon Artificial Eye have released the last six Oscar-winning foreign language films in the UK. We want to keep that track record going.
Prediction: A Fantastic Woman, Chile; Directed by Sebastián Lelio
Winner: A Fantastic Woman, Chile; Directed by Sebastián Lelio
Dunkirk, with its (frankly, a little hard to follow) non-linear storytelling is likely to pip the competition to the post this year, with The Shape of Water getting some fishy love and Baby Driver bringing up the rear with 9% of our vote.
We’ll have to put our foot down here… although Dunkirk won the vote, surely this should go to Edgar Wright’s sup’ed-up, endlessly satisfying, rhythmic wonder Baby Driver?
Prediction: Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Winner: Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Ah, there’s the Baby Driver vote. With 55%, it just manages to overtake Dunkirk in second place. Come on guys, these editing awards should really be the other way around.
Prediction: Julian Slater, Baby Driver
Winner: Richard King and Alex Gibson, Dunkirk
Dunkirk makes a comeback! We’re not going to pretend we have the kind of technical knowledge to call this one, but 45% of us think Nolan’s WWII epic deserves the win.
Prediction: Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk
Winner: Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk
The vote on this one was spilt 55% / 45% in favour of the 1960s inspired sets of Guillermo del Toro's The Shape of Water, with Blade Runner 2049 a close second. The way things are shaping up, tonight's ceremony could bring about a very happy ending for del Toro's fairytale.
Prediction: Paul Denham Austerberry (Production Design); Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A. Melvin (Set Decoration), The Shape of Water
Winner: Paul Denham Austerberry (Production Design); Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A. Melvin (Set Decoration), The Shape of Water
Poor Johnny Greenwood. Cheated in 2008 when his excellent score for There Will Be Blood was taken out of the running on a cruel technicality, now it seems his sublime Phantom Thread score is going to lose out to Alexandre Desplat’s admittedly swoon-worthy work for The Shape of Water.
Only just, mind you. Johnny’s not far behind in the Curzon vote, and old faithful Hans enjoys a 9% chance of taking home his second statue for his Dunkirk score. To be fair to Hans, how has he not won since The Lion King back in 1995?
Prediction: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Winner: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
The only tied vote of the day, the battle for Best Original Song is between Sufjan Stevens’ gorgeous 'Mystery of Love' from Call Me By Your Name, and the La La Land fellas’ chart-topping 'This is Me' from The Greatest Showman.
For more biting analysis, we’ll hand you over to our resident music man for his round up of all Best Original Song nominees.
Prediction: Sufjan Stevens 'Mystery of Love,' Call Me By Your Name OR Benj Pasek and Justin Paul 'This is Me,' The Greatest Showman
Winner: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez 'Remember Me,' Coco
Make up and Hair
The jury is very much in on this one. Kazuhiro Tsuji’s decision to un-retire in order to Churchillify Gary Oldman was a sound one. Oldman paid a visit to Curzon Mayfair earlier this year for a special Darkest Hour Q&A during which he detailed the excruciating daily process for turning him into Winston Churchill. It sounded appalling. Suffice to say, Tsuji earned his nomination and according to our panel he’s in with a 100% chance of winning… that is except for one dissenting voice backing Jessica Chastain's entire hair and make up vibe in Molly's Game.
Prediction: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour
Winner: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour
How is this award not going to The House of Woodcock? Not only is the costume in Phantom Thread sublime (not chic, absolutely not chic) but it is so much a part of the fabric of the film itself.
We spoke to one of the film's stars, Vicky Krieps, about crucial role costume is playing in Paul Thomas Anderson's gothic romance.
Prediction: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
Winner: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
The two films featuring sentient gorillas cancel one another out, cannibalising the votes with War for the Planet of the Apes and Kong: Skull Island ending up in second and third place. Simian hopes for world domination are thwarted yet again. The clear winner here is Blade Runner 2049 with 55% of the vote. And a worthy winner too.
Prediction: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover, Blade Runner 2049
Winner: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert and Richard R. Hoover, Blade Runner 2049
Well there you have it. No way a reflection of what we would like to win, these are our predictions for this year's Academy Awards. The 2018 ceremony takes place in Los Angeles on Sunday 4th March. Let us know what you think will win in the comments below, and check back on Monday 5th March to see how we did.
Oh, and we love you really, Meryl.